All corrections
Substack March 2, 2026 at 04:18 PM

www.astralcodexten.com/p/record-low-crime-rates-are-real-not

1 correction found

1
Claim
They find random people and ask whether they were the victims of crimes in the past year.
Correction

The NCVS does not ask about victimization over “the past year” as its core reference period; BJS states annual NCVS estimates are based on crimes experienced during the prior 6 months (excluding the interview month).

Full reasoning
This sentence describes the NCVS as asking respondents whether they were victims of crimes “in the past year.” BJS’s own NCVS methodology description contradicts that characterization: - BJS explains that **annual NCVS estimates are based on crimes experienced during the prior 6 months (excluding the interview month)**, and that households are interviewed **every 6 months**. So while NCVS produces *annual* statistics, the survey’s core victimization reference period is not simply “the past year” as written here.
1 source
Model: OPENAI_GPT_5 Prompt: v1.14.0